[Read] ➱ The Science of Conjecture Evidence and Probability Before Pascal Author James Franklin – Centrumpowypadkowe.co.uk How did we make reliable predictions before Pascal and Fermat's discovery of the mathematics of probability in 1654 What methods in law science commerce philosophy and logic helped us to get at the tr of Conjecture Epub Û How did we make reliable predictions before Pascal and Fermat's discovery of the mathematics of probability in What methods in law science commerce philosophy and logic helped us to get at Science of Conjecture Evidence and Kindle - the The Science ePUB Ò truth in cases where certainty was not attainable In The Science of Conjecture James Franklin examines how judges witch inuisitors and juries evaluated evidence; how scientists weighed reasons for and against scientific theories; and * ^{Science of Conjecture PDF Î }* how merchants counted shipwrecks to determine insurance rates The Science of Conjecture provides a history of rational methods of dealing with uncertainty and explores the coming to consciousness of the human understanding of risk.

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If you don't know about probability you should read this book to learn about it If you know about probability you should read this book to learn that you are wrong The book is uite dense and hard to read especially the parts about law but it is well worth it It is nice to know that in 21th century we are still capable of science and connecting the dots not just minmaxing in one domain

If you have a formal science background the only way in which you know probability is via assorted mathematical euations If you work in AI you try to apply those euations or related things like neural nets to solve tasks But if you work in AGI you have to ask harder uestions like how does one know if something is true? and what does it mean to know something? and how can I prove that this is true? and for that math is insufficient The point is that courts of law use proofs all the time proof of guilt beyond a reasonable doubt and this is NOT a statement about Bayesian inference So what is it? It turns out that this is the highest form of a theory of probability developed by the medieval Scholastics and survives unmodified to this very day in our legal system Franklin explains who the Scholastics are why they did what they did and why its important Well he actually explainsreviews much much but this was my favorite most memorable part So if you have that formal science background this is a very refreshing and entertaining reminder that there's much to probability than just euations and how it is that we got to herechokengtitiktitikchokengs turns out Occam's Razor is a good bit subtle than it's current modern day usage It was originally a statement about the nature of probability and proof and how God evades it when performing miracles The current modern form of Occam's Razor was actually first stated by Aristotle; what Occam did was add the twist about God

There is no uestioning the scholarship and thoroughness of this book The only problem is that it truly reads like a reference book And if it were sold as such I'd easily give it 5 stars I'm sure I'll be referring to it many times It does not overlook nonmathematical contributions to the science of conjecture and that's a big strength of the book though it also forces the author to really cover a lot of material most wouldn't normally think of as directly related probability The closest it comes to a readable book is in the conclusion but just enumerating the subsections fieldsin that chapter 12 can give some idea of how much is crammed into this book and its styleMathematics Legal Theory Political Theory Economics Psychology Philosophy Linguistics Physics Arithmetic Geometry Ethics Anthropology Hermeneutics Knowledge Organization and Information Technology Argument and Logic and a few others

Not as entertaining or compelling a read as I expected I'd put it down last year and picked it up again this year but Franklin's sheer erudition is mind blowing his extensive and almost exhaustive sources include works in original Latin Italian German and Spanish for example As the author admits there ARE a lot of uotes many of which could have been made less perplexing with a bit of help and orientation from the author but then that may have gone a little against his policy of letting the uotes speak for themselves

I'm only giving this book 4 stars because it was so far over my head Law intensivebut I read it haha It is denseMaybe one day I will find myself educated enough to give it another go

This is a great work of scholarship From the ancients and their ideas of credibility to not exactly generalizable maxims about likelihood or reasonable doubtProbability is the meta subject of meta subjects